Another election, another massive Democratic overperformance, this time in deep-red Kentucky. Democrat Gary Clemons just won a special election by nearly 50 points, outperforming the 2024 presidential margin by more than 40 points. And this isn’t a fluke. Democrats have now won or overperformed in nearly 90% of key elections in 2025. Special elections are often the clearest early warning signs in politics, and Republicans are ignoring them at their own risk.
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Tilt → Less than 1% margin
Lean → 1-5% margin
Likely → 5-15% margin.
Safe → 15%+ margin
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Who is the leader of the Democrats? The answer is there isn't any, and they won't be able to unite behind one. The left is splitting into two parties.
Imagine Democrats seeing a 20 point swing in every race in midterms.
Alright! Remember if we're ever gonna save this country then VOTE BLUE 2026!!!💙💙💙
Kansas, you fail to mention the impacts from redistricting after 2008. But, we are coming back!
I think it's more wild that Americans still don't realize that not showing up on election date is literally a vote for the party you don't want in power, while showing up is equivalent to 2 votes.
I've spent time in Louisville personally. The areas within this district are historically more left leaning. The college campus is there, a lot of the "city folk" as well.
However, that area also has a large number of blue collar workers living in it too. As well as a lot of what I would call the "urban-suburban whites."
By far, hands-down, this vote is NOT along demographic lines. These numbers for this area show a CLEAR ideological shift among a segment of the population.
People forget that the governor that was against younkin had a horrific debate showing.. saying the state has more of a say in parents education compared to the parent was insane
We will have more data before long. I saw that before the midterms next year, Democrats have currently something like 30 special elections for all seats, most within the next few months. At this time. Many seats which don't even have candidates lined up for yet from Democrats so lots of opportunities for candidates.
And if Trump or the Republicans screw over any Republican House member to the point where they want revenge or payback, they can always quit a'la MTG before their current term is over. Not probable, but still growing more possible as conservative factions continue to fracture.
Ethan, Donald Trump is giving us these seats by being vindictive to his own country. He is well hated.
Time for a "Clemons climb."
Victory that tastes sweeter than lemon-lime…
Sorry I just looked more closely at the "what if the whole country moved this much"- it's not just all of California, the only states in the West with Republicans would be Idaho (1/2) and Wyoming (1/1). All of UTAH would be blue. OR-2 would be blue.
Honestly, given what the Republicans are up to, this is the future that ought to occur.
Tsunami blue wave incoming 🌊💙💪🏽
The Fascist MAGA/GOP is built on a ponzi scheme of lie after lie and extremist gaslighting.
Illegal aliens CANNOT receive ACA benefits and tge GOP is eliminating ACA subsidies.
Wake up America. Rural Hospitals and Clinics are already being shut down because of The One Big Bad Bill. My medicare supplement insurance is increasing by 30%. Electricity is up 15% year over year. Medicare copays are up drastically.
Fox News and Pete Stauber (MN MAGA) lies and lies and lies. Oh, and release all of the Epstein files and support Ukraine 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 🇺🇦
tRumplican AKA TACO is a gaslighting criminal, a sexual predator, lawless, a professional liar, an incompetent negotiator, lowest IQ, lowest energy, most gullible, small-minded, WEAK president in the entire history of America. Biden was a better President. Oh, and release (ALL) of the Epstein documents – NOW. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Vote 🗳 🗳 🗳 🗳
You absolutely cannot talk about 2010 and 2014 elections without talking about the ACA. The Dems absolutely knew they were going to get "shellacked" because of the ACA and they did it anyway.
Can I just simply say that this constant pendulum back and forth is absurd not just domestically but also for our allies abroad? Especially the last decade? The two sides have long since stopped being anywhere near the same, where the average Joe Q Voter could sleep soundly knowing that at least core American values are safe no matter who is in the White House. But today Republicans firmly became not only the party of for oligarchs, by oligarchs, but worse, the party of for russia, by russia.
Blue wave
Imagine if dems actually win 386 seats 😆
Join bluesky 🦋
3:44 Bro, that was because of project redmap. Republicans have to constantly cheat to win.
I'm tired of hearing the name Republican; there is an extinction level event coming for the party next year.. the only time I want to head that name, is when I'm reading a histort book and Abraham lincolns name comes up. It's hard to gerrymander a district when 60%+ of the people in it hate you.
Taking a beating like this in the Louisville suburbs which get really old and white and traditionalist really quick once you get outside of I264 should scare the hell out of the GOP.
I expect the trends we are seeing in special elections to continue for the simple reason that Trump/Republicans will continue to double-down in 2026 with what they did in 2025. Trump is just incapable of making adjustments; it’s against his nature.💙
Pennsylvania will be blue
Congress will be blue
Hope is eternal
Let's go blue.
Blue 🌊🌊🌊 coming. F Republicans go blue. No healthcare, no Republicans
Bro, seriously—I’m asking you to create a video about the MTG congressional House seat (GA-14). Can Democrats flip it in a 2026 wave year? Please give us an analysis.
No more maga no more trump 2026 blue 🌊🌊 keep not showing up Republicans 😅😅😅😅
polling doesn't require legions of participants to be accurate.
You got to keep showing up Democrats and vote down the ballot. in every election, every race it matters. State election, district, mayor, governor, Lt governor, Senate, house and judges they all matter, every election matter. When we vote we win. When we win, trump power is gone.
A little less DEI, a little more healthcare.
I hope I see these kind of numbers in Texas elections. Not gonna hold my breath but I can hope.
WOW and he isnt a Corruption Based Corporate Dem either!!
Hooray!!
Only 5,170 votes were the turnout and in 2024 it was 40,000+ so I wouldn’t say 100% it’s a 100% good thing for the dems. They can celebrate but the number of people that turned out, it wasn’t a big enough of the electorate
Is it only me, or is it because I'm German, but I wouldn't say that it is a 40 percentage points shift, but a 20 percentage points shift. When we have a group of voters who all voted for the same party as the last time but only one switched their vote, I would say the shift would be 1 vote (the 1 who changed their vote) and not 2 votes (the 1 vote the one party lost + the same vote the other party won). The same applies to the percentages. When 10 percent of the voters decided to change their votes, the shift should be 10 p.p. and not 20 p.p.
Crush the GOP and it's brown shirts out of existence.
I really wish Beshear would seriously consider running for McConnell's Senate seat. This could be the one year KY would go blue for a Senate race
The world needs a blue Tsunami 🥲
Trump is destroying it